The Terrorism-Tourism Nexus – The Causal Impact of Terrorist Attacks on Tourism Demand

The negative impact of terrorist attacks on tourism demand has frequently been the focus of attention of the academic literature and the media. Just recently, the media reported that the terrorist attacks conducted by the Islamic State have harmed the tourism industry in such places as Turkey, Egypt, Paris or London. However, the scholarly literature on the impact of terrorism on tourism or the terrorism-tourism nexus, as I call it here, was mainly dominated by qualitative analysis of specific case studies and anectodal evidence.

This study, by contrast, is supposed to go far beyond the scope of most academic studies. In fact, the analysis will focus on the general effects of terrorist attacks on tourism by using quantitative methodology. More specifically, the main purpose of this study is to assess the causal effect of terrorist attacks on tourist arrivals, how strong this effect is, and whether or not terrorist attacks have a lagged effect on the tourism demand one year after an attack had occured.